NOAA Forecasters Predict Above-Normal Hurricane Season
Coastal residents living along the Atlantic Ocean can expect to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
NOAA forecasters predict there will be 12 to 18 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher and of those six to 10 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Of those hurricanes, forecasters predict three to six major hurricanes, which are Category 3, 4 or 5 and have winds of 111 mph or higher.
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to forecasters in a release.
"The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”
In the release officials said climate factors considered for the outlook include:
The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.
La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.
“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit, according to forecasters. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches.
“The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we’ve seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere. As we move into this hurricane season it’s important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public,” FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said.
“Now is the time, if you haven’t already, to get your plan together for what you and your family would do if disaster strikes. Visit ready.gov to learn more. And if you’re a small business owner, visit www.ready.gov/business to ensure that your business is prepared for a disaster,” Fugate said. –Sun News
Coastal residents living along the Atlantic Ocean can expect to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
NOAA forecasters predict there will be 12 to 18 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher and of those six to 10 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Of those hurricanes, forecasters predict three to six major hurricanes, which are Category 3, 4 or 5 and have winds of 111 mph or higher.
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to forecasters in a release.
"The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”
In the release officials said climate factors considered for the outlook include:
The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.
La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.
“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit, according to forecasters. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches.
“The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we’ve seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere. As we move into this hurricane season it’s important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public,” FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said.
“Now is the time, if you haven’t already, to get your plan together for what you and your family would do if disaster strikes. Visit ready.gov to learn more. And if you’re a small business owner, visit www.ready.gov/business to ensure that your business is prepared for a disaster,” Fugate said. –Sun News
No comments:
Post a Comment